Technology Intelligence

Six pathways.
One mission.

A structured comparison of every ASTM-certified and emerging SAF production pathway — from commercial HEFA to frontier PtL and PBtL.

6
ASTM-certified
Pathways
50–99%
GHG Reduction
vs. Fossil Jet
$800–4k
MSP Range
USD per Tonne
TRL 4–9
Technology
Readiness
Platform Overview Full Ecosystem Regulatory Overview SAF Technology Feedstock Database
Production pathways

Technology
landscape.

Each pathway converts different feedstocks into jet-grade kerosene through distinct chemical processes. The diversity of approaches is the sector's greatest asset.

TRL 9 — Commercial
HEFA
Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids
The commercially dominant SAF pathway. Converts waste oils, animal fats, and used cooking oil via catalytic hydrotreating into drop-in kerosene. Over 90% of global SAF production today.
  • ASTMD7566 Annex A2 (2011)
  • Blend limit50%
  • CAPEX$800–1,500/t/a
  • MSP$800–1,400/t
  • GHG reduction50–85%
  • FeedstockUCO, tallow, waste fats
  • Jet yield40–60%
  • ScalingNow (feedstock-limited)
Key players: Neste, World Energy, bp, Eni, TotalEnergies, Preem, Repsol, Diamond Green Diesel
TRL 7–8 — Demonstration
ATJ
Alcohol-to-Jet
Converts alcohols (ethanol or isobutanol) via dehydration, oligomerisation, and hydrogenation into synthetic paraffinic kerosene. Leverages mature ethanol supply chains.
  • ASTMD7566 Annex A5 (2016)
  • Blend limit50%
  • CAPEX$2,000–3,500/t/a
  • MSP$1,200–2,200/t
  • GHG reduction55–85%
  • FeedstockEthanol, isobutanol
  • Jet yield30–50%
  • Scaling2026–2028
Key players: LanzaJet, Gevo, Axens/Praj, Swedish Biofuels, Byogy
TRL 6–7 — Pilot
G-FT / BtL
Gasification-Fischer-Tropsch / Biomass-to-Liquid
Thermochemically gasifies solid biomass and converts the resulting synthesis gas via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis into liquid hydrocarbons. Broadest feedstock flexibility.
  • ASTMD7566 Annex A1 (2009)
  • Blend limit50%
  • CAPEX$3,000–6,000/t/a
  • MSP$1,400–2,800/t
  • GHG reduction85–95%
  • FeedstockWood, straw, MSW, residues
  • Jet yield20–40%
  • Scaling2027–2030
Key players: DG Fuels, Fulcrum, bp/JM CANS, Red Rock Biofuels, Velocys
TRL 5–6 — Pilot
PtL / eSAF
Power-to-Liquid / Electro-SAF
Produces synthetic kerosene from renewable electricity, green hydrogen, and captured CO₂. The only pathway with theoretically unlimited feedstock availability — independent of biogenic inputs.
  • ASTMD7566 Annex A1 (FT-SPK)
  • Blend limit50%
  • CAPEX$5,000–10,000/t/a
  • MSP$2,000–4,000/t
  • GHG reduction90–99%
  • FeedstockGreen H₂, CO₂ (DAC/point)
  • Jet yield30–50%
  • Scaling2028–2032
Key players: HIF Global, Atmosfair/Norsk e-Fuel, Infinium, Synhelion, INERATEC
TRL 6–7 — Pilot
MtJ
Methanol-to-Jet
Converts methanol via dehydration and oligomerisation into kerosene. Leverages existing global methanol logistics — potentially the fastest scaling curve of all non-HEFA pathways.
  • ASTMD4054 pipeline (pending)
  • Blend limittbd (50% expected)
  • CAPEX$2,500–4,500/t/a
  • MSP$1,500–3,000/t
  • GHG reduction70–95%
  • FeedstockGreen/bio methanol
  • Jet yield35–50%
  • Scaling2028–2031
Key players: ExxonMobil, Honeywell UOP, Topsoe, CAC Engineering, Metafuels
TRL 4–5 — Pilot
PBtL
Plasma-Biomass-to-Liquid (Hybrid)
Hybrid pathway converting biogenic methane and CO₂ via plasma reactor into syngas, then into SAF via Fischer-Tropsch. Combines biogenic feedstock advantages with plasma process efficiency.
  • ASTMD4054 pipeline (pending)
  • Blend limittbd
  • CAPEX$3,000–5,000/t/a (est.)
  • MSP$1,200–2,500/t (est.)
  • GHG reduction80–95%
  • FeedstockBiogas CH₄ + CO₂
  • Jet yield35–45% (est.)
  • Scaling2029–2032
Key players: Caphenia GmbH
Head-to-head

Technology
comparison.

Twelve parameters across six pathways. The data behind the investment decisions.

Scroll horizontally to see all pathways
Parameter HEFA ATJ G-FT / BtL PtL / eSAF MtJ PBtL
ASTM Status D7566 A2 (2011) D7566 A5 (2016) D7566 A1 (2009) D7566 A1 (FT-SPK) D4054 pipeline D4054 pipeline
TRL (2026) 9 7–8 6–7 5–6 6–7 4–5
Blend Limit 50% 50% 50% 50% tbd (50% exp.) tbd
CAPEX (USD/t/a) 800–1,500 2,000–3,500 3,000–6,000 5,000–10,000 2,500–4,500 3,000–5,000 (est.)
MSP (USD/t) 800–1,400 1,200–2,200 1,400–2,800 2,000–4,000 1,500–3,000 1,200–2,500 (est.)
GHG Reduction 50–85% 55–85% 85–95% 90–99% 70–95% 80–95%
Feedstock UCO, tallow, waste fats Ethanol, isobutanol Wood, straw, MSW Green H₂ + CO₂ Green/bio MeOH Biogas CH₄ + CO₂
Jet Yield 40–60% 30–50% 20–40% 30–50% 35–50% 35–45% (est.)
Scaling Horizon Now 2026–2028 2027–2030 2028–2032 2028–2031 2029–2032
Key Constraint Feedstock availability Alcohol supply cost Gasifier complexity Green H₂ cost + DAC ASTM certification Scale-up from pilot
Feedstock Risk High (UCO fraud, price) Medium (crop-linked) Low (waste-based) None (electricity) Low (commodity) Low (biogas)
Bankability ★★★★★ ★★★★ ★★★ ★★ ★★★ ★★
i
How to read this data: MSP (Minimum Selling Price) is the factory-gate cost excluding transport, blending, and taxes. CAPEX is per tonne of annual nameplate capacity. GHG reduction is lifecycle (Well-to-Wake) vs. fossil Jet A-1. Bankability reflects the ability to secure project finance from institutional lenders as of early 2026. All figures represent industry consensus ranges — individual projects may fall outside these bands.
Regulatory drivers

The mandate
framework.

Government mandates are creating legally guaranteed demand floors — the foundation for long-term offtake contracts and project finance.

ReFuelEU Aviation
EU blending mandate: 2 % (2025), 6 % (2030), 20 % (2035), 70 % (2050). Includes separate eSAF sub-mandates from 2030.
US IRA / 45Z
Clean Fuel Production Credit up to $1.75/gal. The strongest single economic incentive for SAF investment globally.
UK SAF Mandate
2 % from 2025, 10 % by 2030, 22 % by 2040. Revenue certainty mechanism under development.
CORSIA
ICAO global scheme mandatory from 2027. Accepts SAF as emissions reduction measure for international flights.
Japan / Singapore / India
Emerging SAF targets and incentive programmes accelerating pan-Asian demand.
Access the data

Track every
pathway.

Real-time project data, producer profiles, and deal flow across all six SAF technology pathways — in one platform.

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