Week to 18 Feb 2026
2024 (converted at 1.08)
Fossil Jet A-1 benchmark: ~$650/t. All figures in USD. No investment advice.
Everything you need
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Verified open-source intelligence.
The most comprehensive SAF facility tracker on the web. Cross-referenced from public disclosures, trade press, and the SAF Monitor 2025 dataset. Filter by status, region, country, technology pathway, certification, or regulatory framework.
No Warranty; Informational Purposes Only. All data, analyses, capacity figures, project statuses, and related information presented on this platform (collectively, the “Content”) are compiled exclusively from publicly available sources—including but not limited to corporate press releases, regulatory filings, government publications, industry association reports, and reputable news outlets. The Content is provided strictly on an “as-is” and “as-available” basis for general informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute professional, financial, investment, legal, or engineering advice of any kind.
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The numbers behind
the opportunity.
Tracked
Covered
Facilities
EU 2030
Four dynamics shaping
the next 36 months.
Everything in this market reduces to four structural forces. Each one alone moves billions. Together they create the fastest-growing energy transition segment on the planet.
Mandate-Guaranteed Demand
ReFuelEU mandates 1.2% e-SAF by 2030, rising to 35% by 2050. Non-compliance penalties at 2x the fossil-SAF price gap. UK mandates 10% SAF by 2030 with separate PtL obligation. Japan: 10% by 2030 (1.4M tonnes). US Grand Challenge: 3B gallons by 2030. This is not optional demand · it is legally irrevocable.
StructuralInstitutional Capital Arriving
Climate-infrastructure funds and Tier-1 commercial banks are entering e-SAF project finance. Typical rounds now combine climate-PE anchor equity, strategic corporates, and senior project debt. The asset class is no longer venture-grade · infra capital is pricing in mandate-guaranteed returns. Specific parties and amounts for in-flight transactions are disclosed to verified Deal Room members under NDA.
BullishThe FID Gap
Of 306 tracked projects, only 56 are operating · the rest are in FEED, announced, or on hold. Build cycles: 3–4 years minimum. Math is rigid: FIDs must close in 2025/2026 or the 2030 mandates face a physical supply deficit. Announced capacity is not built capacity.
RiskCost Curve Acceleration
e-SAF today: $4,000–6,500/t. Fossil Jet A-1: ~$650/t. The gap is 6–10x. By 2030: projected 3.5x. By 2050: 2.5x. Over 60% of OPEX is electricity + electrolysis. Modular manufacturing targets 60% electrolyzer cost reduction. Emerging plasma-chemistry routes claim 86% efficiency at 1/6th the energy input.
BullishDeal archetypes under
working titles.
Project names are codenames / working titles. Amounts and counterparty identities are masked in the public tier. Cards below show only the transaction archetype. Verified Deal Room members receive full terms under NDA.
| Working title | Amount | Type | Key counterparties | Archetype |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ••• Codename A-01 | masked | Equity + Debt | masked | Large-scale FOAK financing (equity + project debt) |
| ••• Codename A-02 | masked | Long-term Offtake | masked | Multi-year airline-consortium offtake |
| ••• Codename B-01 | masked | Equity + Debt | masked | Tier-1 bank project debt in e-fuels |
| ••• Codename B-02 | masked | Take-or-Pay | masked | Book-and-claim with bank-led emission credits |
| ••• Codename C-01 | masked | Grant + Loan | masked | Multilateral de-risking (DFI + blended grant) |
| ••• Codename C-02 | masked | EU Innovation Fund | masked | FOAK grant for modular replication |
| ••• Codename D-01 | masked | Supply Agreement | masked | HEFA-SAF cross-border supply lock |
| ••• Codename D-02 | masked | MoU long-horizon | masked | Integrated-supplier / flag-carrier volume MoU |
| ••• Codename E-01 | masked | Strategic | masked | Adjacent-industry corporate entering upstream supply |
Where the market is.
Where it's going.
SAF demand and production capacity are distributed unevenly. Policy drives geography. Wind and sun drive economics.
Beyond the registry.
Complete market map.
The Complete Market Map
Market sizing with verified sources. Technology paths ranked by TRL. Cost analysis with price bars. 12 verified primary sources. The complete data layer behind these numbers.
Regulatory Timeline 2025–2050
Every major SAF mandate and incentive · ReFuelEU, CORSIA, IRA, UK SAF Mandate, Japan, Singapore. Compliance deadlines, penalty structures, and book-and-claim rules in plain language.
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