535 production projects. 20 active mandates. 51 countries. The data snapshot for capital-allocation, offtake, and policy decisions in sustainable aviation fuels.
The global SAF production pipeline continues to expand, with 535 tracked projects across 51 countries — up from an estimated 306 at end-2024. 92 facilities are operational, producing an aggregate 6.64 million tonnes per annum. The gap between announced pipeline capacity (57.1 MTPA) and operational capacity (6.64 MTPA) remains the defining challenge: over 88% of the pipeline is pre-FID or under construction.
Key insight: The 2025 ReFuelEU 2% mandate generated the expected demand signal, but physical SAF supply at European airports fell short of the target in Q1 2026. Penalty mechanisms are now live — the first compliance reports are due by March 2027. Every fuel supplier is now on the clock.
| Status | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Planning | 258 | 48.2% |
| Announced | 93 | 17.4% |
| Operational | 92 | 17.2% |
| Under Construction | 71 | 13.3% |
| On Hold / Cancelled | 20 | 3.7% |
| Commissioning | 1 | 0.2% |
| Total | 535 | 100% |
| Pathway | Projects | Share | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|
| HEFA | 174 | 32.5% | TRL 9 · commercially proven |
| Fischer-Tropsch (G-FT) | 116 | 21.7% | TRL 6-8 · scaling |
| Electrolysis / Green H₂ | 103 | 19.3% | TRL 7-9 · upstream for PtL |
| Other / Multi-pathway | 68 | 12.7% | Various |
| Power-to-Liquid (PtL) | 37 | 6.9% | TRL 5-7 · first commercial |
| Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) | 36 | 6.7% | TRL 8-9 · LanzaJet proven |
HEFA dominates by project count (32.5%) but faces a hard feedstock ceiling — global eligible-lipid supply can sustain ~25 Mt/year of HEFA-SAF at best, covering roughly 7-9% of projected 2035 jet demand. Fischer-Tropsch and Power-to-Liquid together represent 28.6% of the pipeline and are the only pathways with effectively unlimited feedstock (biomass waste + renewable electricity + CO₂).
| Country | Projects | Share |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 102 | 19.1% |
| Germany | 72 | 13.5% |
| China | 26 | 4.9% |
| France | 24 | 4.5% |
| Japan | 23 | 4.3% |
| Netherlands | 22 | 4.1% |
| Canada | 22 | 4.1% |
| United Kingdom | 18 | 3.4% |
| Spain | 18 | 3.4% |
| Australia | 17 | 3.2% |
| + 41 additional countries (206 projects) | ||
The US leads by count (102) driven by §45Z tax credits and existing refining infrastructure. Germany is second (72) powered by the national PtL quota (0.5% from 2026) and BEHG funding. China (26) is growing fastest in absolute terms, with 4 new CAAC-backed pilot projects in Q1 2026.
20 active regulatory regimes now track SAF obligations or incentives globally. The three structural pillars remain:
| Regime | Mechanism | 2026 Target | 2030 Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| ReFuelEU Aviation | Blend mandate + penalty | 2% | 6% (1.2% e-SAF) |
| UK SAF Mandate | Blend + buy-out + RCM | 2% | 10% |
| US §45Z | Production tax credit | $1.00/gal cap | Expires 2029 |
New in Q1-Q2 2026: Brazil's ProBioQAV law (1% GHG reduction from 2027), South Korea's MOLIT mandate announcement (1% international flights from 2027), and the Netherlands' Green Deal ambition exceeding ReFuelEU at 14% by 2030.
| Feedstock | Price | Unit | Δ vs Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tallow Cat 1/2 (DDP NWE) | 885 | €/t | -8.8% |
| Green Hydrogen (EU) | 7.16 | $/kg | -5.9% |
| Solar PPA P25 (EU) | 42 | $/MWh | -14.1% |
| Wood Pellets (CIF NWE) | 180 | $/t | -12.4% |
| Methanol Contract (EU) | 650 | $/t | +11.9% |
| Electrolyser CAPEX (PEM) | 850 | $/kW | -5.6% |
| Ethanol US (CBOT) | 1.91 | $/gal | +1.1% |
Broad-based feedstock deflation benefits PtL and G-FT pathways disproportionately. Solar PPA prices fell 14% year-over-year in Europe, directly reducing the OPEX of electrolysis-based SAF. The outlier: methanol rose 12% on tight European supply and rising shipping-sector demand (FuelEU Maritime).
Cost trajectory: At current electrolyser CAPEX ($850/kW) and EU solar PPA prices ($42/MWh), the all-in PtL production cost approaches $4,000-5,000/t — still 6-8× fossil jet, but structurally declining at ~8% per year. HEFA holds at $1,500-2,000/t but faces feedstock-driven upward pressure as UCO and tallow competition intensifies.
Watch list for the second half: